Commanders vs Ravens Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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(AP Photo/Terrance Williams)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:06 PM

The Ravens are -6.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Washington Commanders (4-1-0) visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens (3-2-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.

The Ravens are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Commanders vs. Ravens Over/Under is 51.5 total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Commanders	+6.5 -110	51.5 -110	+240
Ravens	-6.5 -110	51.5 -110	-300

Commanders vs. Ravens Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win this game with 64.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Commanders vs Ravens Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Ravens will cover the spread with 61.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.30 Units / 48% ROI)
Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Terry McLaurin has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
Noah Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.70 Units / 71% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Ravens players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ravens Player Prop Best Bets Today

Justice Hill has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 42% ROI)
Derrick Henry has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 63% ROI)
Justice Hill has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Rashod Bateman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)
Rashod Bateman has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.15 Units / 45% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.75 Units / 30% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 23% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.90 Units / 36% ROI)

Ravens Best Bets:

The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 71% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have scored last in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 59% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 4-1 (+2.9 Units / 51.79% ROI).

Commanders are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 93.04% ROI
Commanders are 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Commanders are 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / ROI

Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens are 3-2 (+0.85 Units / 15.18% ROI).

Ravens are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -25.13% ROI
Ravens are 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Ravens are 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens

The Commanders were 2-12 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.

The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The Commanders were 2-6 (.250) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders are undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .603.

Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.

The Ravens are 6-1 (.857) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 247.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Ravens are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .431.

The Ravens are undefeated (6-0) vs bottom 10 pass defenses since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .486.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have been successful on 51.1% of plays they have ran this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.8% of plays this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Ravens have run successful plays on 53.5% of pass attempts against a base rush this season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on 52.3% of pass attempts with a base rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Ravens have run successful plays on 54.6% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on 52.3% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have scored on 63.6% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — best in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 52.9% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have been successful on 50.0% of plays they have ran against a light front this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed their opponents to be successful on 50.0% of plays with a light front this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have scored on 68.2% of their drives in the second half this season — best in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 52% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats

The Commanders have run 64% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Commanders have scored on 68% of their drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Commanders had 4 rushes of 20+ yards in Week 5 — most in NFL.

The Commanders have rushed for 13 TDs this season — most in NFL.

Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats

The Ravens have thrown the ball 12% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/17 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Ravens have scored 14 TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Ravens have thrown the ball 21% of the time (16 Pass Attempts/75 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Ravens threw the ball 24% of the time (14 Pass Attempts/58 plays) on 3rd and short last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats

The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 109.4 with a base rush (675 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.6.

The Commanders defense has allowed 50 TD passes since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 107.5 (745 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.3.

The Commanders defense allowed 2.3 TD passes per game (39/17) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.4.

Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats

The Ravens defense allowed successful plays on 27% of plays with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Ravens defense has allowed 15 of 87 (17%) first downs on the ground this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Ravens defense has allowed successful plays on 26% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Ravens defense allowed -0.34 epa per play with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

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