- The USMNT (-275) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
- The United States has won only one of the last three H2H meetings.
- Why bettors should expect a strong start from the USMNT.
Following a 2-0 win over Bolivia in their first group match, the USMNT will travel to Atlanta for a second group match against Panama.
Recently, manager Gregg Berhalter’s side has struggled against the Panamanian squad. A July 2023 Gold Cup match ended 1-1 with Panama winning on penalties.
That marked the second win in three head-to-head meetings for Panama, who lost 3-1 to Uruguay in their Matchday 1 group match.
Here’s a look at the Copa America odds and my prediction for Thursday’s match.
USMNT vs. Panama Odds
- United States Moneyline: -275
- Panama Moneyline: +750
- Draw Moneyline: +375
- Total Goals: 2.5 (-120/-115)
USMNT vs. Panama Prediction
United States 1H Moneyline (-120)
The USMNT has recently excelled at finding quality scoring chances early.
Albeit against an inferior opponent in Bolivia, they entered the interval with a 2-0 halftime advantage.
That was a deserved advantage based on the underlying metrics.
Berhalter’s side posted a +0.44 expected goal differential and a +1.13 post-shot xG differential in the first half, per fotmob.com.
In two pre-tournament friendlies, the United States repeated their early success in terms of goal scoring.
Against Brazil and Colombia, two sides miles ahead of Panama in quality, they scored a first half goal in both contests.
While they failed to win either of those halves, those two opponents present a higher attacking threat than Panama.
In their opening Copa America match against Uruguay, Panama generated next-to-nothing early.
The first half saw them create only 0.15 expected goals and 0.03 post-shot expected goals.
In fact, 73% of their total psxG total for the match came in the 94th minute when they were down 3-0.
The last time these sides met, Panama managed only a single big scoring chance on four shots in the first half. Ultimately, they didn’t score until the 99th minute.
Accordingly, this handicap is essentially whether the United States can manage a first-half goal.
Given they’re -175 to accomplish that feat, I’ll lay the -120 and back another strong start from Berhalter’s squad.
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