Cubs vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 10

min read
(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 10, 2024, 12:17 PM
  • Cubs / Rangers TV Channel: MARQ | MLBN

The Chicago Cubs (+125) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Texas Rangers (-150) on Sunday, March 10, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Surprise, AZ.

This season, the Cubs are 5-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 8-7 ATS.

Cubs vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Moneyline
Cubs+125
Rangers -150

Cubs vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


Bet now on Cubs vs Rangers and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Miles Mastrobuoni has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+5.40 Units / 180% ROI)
  • Matt Mervis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Alexander Canario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Miguel Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Evan Carter has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Leody Taveras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Josh Jung has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 171 games (+28.43 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 97 of their last 171 games (+26.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 171 games (+24.63 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games at home (+14.68 Units / 16% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Cubs are 7-5 against the Run Line (+1.71 Units / 10.93% ROI).

  • 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.93 Units / -6.26% ROI
  • 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.78 Units / -36.35% ROI
  • 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.57 Units / 26.94% ROI

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Rangers are 8-7 against the Run Line (+0.76 Units / 3.82% ROI).

  • 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 5.44% ROI
  • 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.42 Units / -14.77% ROI
  • 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.66 Units / 9.96% ROI

37 of Drew Smyly’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2023 season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Drew Smyly threw his curveball 42% of the time (223/525) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.

Drew Smyly threw his curveball 45% of the time (767/1,725) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

37 of Drew Smyly’s 99 breaking pitch strikeouts (37%) were backdoor in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Cody Bradford has limited playing time.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Cubs were 27-4 (.871) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

The Cubs were just 10-20 (.333) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.

The Cubs are just 33-38 (.465) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.

The Cubs were just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Rangers were 32-13 (.711) after a home win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Rangers were 24-19 (.558) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .389.

The Rangers are just 2-139 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.

The Rangers were just 2-52 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

Cubs hitters slugged .509 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .376.

The Cubs batted .167 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.

Cubs hitters slugged .456 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.

Cubs hitters had an OBP of .337 (3,050 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .324.

Rangers hitters had an OBP of .349 (3,096 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .324.

Rangers hitters slugged .495 at home in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.

The Rangers batted .263 in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Rangers hitters had an OPS of .844 (3,096 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.

Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .233 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.

The Cubs have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 52% of their games on the road since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of .278 against Rangers pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.

The Rangers won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Rangers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Scherzer (Texas Rangers): Back, Out
  • Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
  • Brett Martin (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
  • Tyler Mahle (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
  • Josh Jung (Texas Rangers): Calf, Out
  • Jonathan Hernandez (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
  • Carson Coleman (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
  • Corey Seager (Texas Rangers): Groin, Out
  • Codi Heuer (Chicago Cubs): Elbow, Out
  • Brad Boxberger (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, Out

Bet now on Cubs vs Rangers and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.