- Cubs / Rangers TV Channel: MARQ | MLBN
The Chicago Cubs (+125) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Texas Rangers (-150) on Sunday, March 10, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Surprise, AZ.
This season, the Cubs are 5-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 8-7 ATS.
Cubs vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +125 |
| Rangers | -150 |
Cubs vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Miles Mastrobuoni has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+5.40 Units / 180% ROI)
- Matt Mervis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alexander Canario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Miguel Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Evan Carter has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Jung has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 171 games (+28.43 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 97 of their last 171 games (+26.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 171 games (+24.63 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games at home (+14.68 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Cubs are 7-5 against the Run Line (+1.71 Units / 10.93% ROI).
- 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.93 Units / -6.26% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.78 Units / -36.35% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.57 Units / 26.94% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Rangers are 8-7 against the Run Line (+0.76 Units / 3.82% ROI).
- 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 5.44% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.42 Units / -14.77% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.66 Units / 9.96% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
37 of Drew Smyly’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2023 season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly threw his curveball 42% of the time (223/525) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly threw his curveball 45% of the time (767/1,725) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
37 of Drew Smyly’s 99 breaking pitch strikeouts (37%) were backdoor in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cody Bradford has limited playing time.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Cubs were 27-4 (.871) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Cubs were just 10-20 (.333) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Cubs are just 33-38 (.465) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Cubs were just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Rangers were 32-13 (.711) after a home win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rangers were 24-19 (.558) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Rangers are just 2-139 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rangers were just 2-52 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters slugged .509 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Cubs batted .167 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Cubs hitters slugged .456 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Cubs hitters had an OBP of .337 (3,050 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters had an OBP of .349 (3,096 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Rangers hitters slugged .495 at home in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Rangers batted .263 in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rangers hitters had an OPS of .844 (3,096 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .233 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Cubs have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 52% of their games on the road since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .278 against Rangers pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Rangers won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rangers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Scherzer (Texas Rangers): Back, Out
- Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
- Brett Martin (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
- Tyler Mahle (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
- Josh Jung (Texas Rangers): Calf, Out
- Jonathan Hernandez (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
- Carson Coleman (Texas Rangers): Elbow, Out
- Corey Seager (Texas Rangers): Groin, Out
- Codi Heuer (Chicago Cubs): Elbow, Out
- Brad Boxberger (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, Out
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