The San Francisco Giants (-130) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+110) on Monday, March 11, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Surprise, AZ.
This season, the Giants are 2-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 6-5 ATS.
Giants vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Giants | -130 |
| Royals | +110 |
Giants vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:
- LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- Wade Meckler has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Wilmer Flores has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Heliot Ramos has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Loftin has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- Nathan Eaton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nathan Eaton has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 115 games (+27.02 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 85 games (+22.17 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 148 games (+22.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.68 Units / 12% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Giants are 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.04 Units / -17.32% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.96 Units / -44.88% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 34.01% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.82 Units / -43.35% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Royals are 6-5 against the Run Line (+1.56 Units / 12.68% ROI).
- 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 30.61% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -47.84% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.67 Units / 38.18% ROI
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (389/619) against Logan Webb in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 64% (250/393) against Logan Webb in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Webb threw his changeup 46% of the time (371/813) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 65% (199/308) against Logan Webb in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Angel Zerpa walked 8 of 182 batters (4%) in the 2023 season — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 20% (69/350) against Angel Zerpa in the 2023 season — 5th lowest among in AL; League Avg: 29% — fourth Percentile.
Angel Zerpa allowed a slugging percentage of .545 (67 Total Bases / 123 ABs) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among in AL; League Avg: .379 — third Percentile.
Angel Zerpa walked 8 of 182 batters (4%) in the 2023 season — 4th best among in AL; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Giants are 130-3 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Giants are just 24-44 (.353) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Giants are 31-32 (.492) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Giants were 65-1 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Royals are just 11-83 (.117) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals were just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals were just 17-12 (.586) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Royals are just 9-15 (.375) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters had an OPS of just .475 (3,303 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Giants batted just .151 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Giants hitters had an OPS of just .683 (1,790 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Giants hitters slugged just .376 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters had an OPS of just .649 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers walked 87 of 1,439 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants pitchers walked 403 of 6,039 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Giants pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into 130 double plays in 1,059 opportunities (12%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in the 2023 season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Freddy Fermin (Kansas City Royals): Finger, Out
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- John McMillon (Kansas City Royals): Forearm, Out
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Out
- Brad Keller (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Back, Out
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Alex Cobb (San Francisco Giants): Hip, Out
- Jung Hoo Lee (San Francisco Giants): Side, Day-To-Day
- Cole Waites (San Francisco Giants): Elbow, Out
- Mike Yastrzemski (San Francisco Giants): Shoulder, Out
- Robbie Ray (San Francisco Giants): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Marco Luciano (San Francisco Giants): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Keaton Winn (San Francisco Giants): Elbow, Out
- Mark Mathias (San Francisco Giants): Shoulder, Out
- Kai-Wei Teng (San Francisco Giants): Oblique, Out
- Thomas Szapucki (San Francisco Giants): Shoulder, Out
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