U.S. Women’s Open Picks: Is It Worth Betting Nelly Korda?

If you haven’t been paying attention to LPGA betting markets and want to jump in for this week’s U.S. Women’s Open, well, the prices should look pretty familiar.

At the top of the board is Nelly Korda, who’s sporting a Scottie Scheffler-like outright number of +350 after winning six of her last seven starts.

Just as we’ve battled the Scheffler conundrum in recent months, the question, “To Nelly or Not to Nelly?” might be the most relevant one to ask ourselves before diving in.

If you’re backing Korda to win a third career major and second this year, it’s gotta be an all-or-nothing proposition. It defeats the purpose to hedge such a short number with a handful of players in the mid-tier, essentially negating much of your ROI.

Or… and here’s an idea that I’ve invoked with Scheffler in recent months: Parlay this play with another that you like, even in a different sport. I made an early play on Korda paired with the Boston Celtics to win the NBA title (they’re up 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals as I’m writing this on Monday afternoon) that juices the short odds on each to around +650 as a combo platter.

The other alternative, of course, is to fade the game’s hottest player altogether, crossing your fingers while hoping someone with a bigger number can outlast her this week.

Let’s examine the potential options at Lancaster Country Club, where early-week storms should leave the course playing soft and long.

U.S. Women’s Open Picks

The easy answer here is Rose Zhang (+1800), the 21-year-old wunderkind who owns a decent-sized price for being the second-shortest player on the board. She also has the distinction of being the only non-Nelly player to win a Korda-attended event over the past few months, winning the Cognizant Founders Cup, which was also in the Northeast, suggesting the West Coaster might be primed for another East Coast title run.

Hannah Green (+3000) has really come into her own over the past two seasons, claiming three LPGA titles in the last 14 months. The Australian most recently won the JM Eagle LPGA Championship at the end of April and while her major championship record isn’t too pretty (three top-10s in 28 starts), she does own a major victory at the Women’s PGA Championship in 2019.

The number might be a little too short to get me to bite, but it’s worth noting that Gabriela Ruffels (+4500) has been the best rookie on the LPGA this season, with three top-three results, including in each of her last two starts. She’s probably more of a top-five/10 pick, but she certainly warrants a mention.

Despite winning the 2022 Chevron Championship, Jennifer Kupcho (+5000) has largely been disappointing at majors, posting just a pair of other top-10 finishes. That said, after a slow start to the year, she’s starting to trend in the right direction, with five top-25s in her last six starts, including a T-3 in her most recent.

I’d certainly never get Linn Grant (+5000) and Maja Stark (+6600) confused, but I suppose I could see it if somebody else did. After all, Grant is a 24-year-old Swede with one LPGA win, five LET wins and one top-10 at a major, while Stark is a 24-year-old Swede with one LPGA win, six LET wins and two top-10s at majors. See? There are almost zero similarities. I kid, I kid. They’re tough to separate, but if you can only take one, I’d lean toward Stark, who despite the longer odds is ranked higher and owns three top-three finishes in her last five starts.

It wasn’t so long ago that books would’ve listed the likes of Lexi Thompson (+8000) and Anna Nordqvist (+10000) at much shorter prices than Ingrid Lindblad (+6600) just based on name recognition alone. The latter should enjoy plenty of recognition moving forward, though, as she was the best player in the nation while competing for LSU and just might have the same playing-with-free-money attitude that carried Zhang to victory in her first career pro start last year.

Though she clearly doesn’t play her best golf at the U.S. Women’s Open, with five MCs in eight career starts and nothing inside the top-30, Georgia Hall (+15000) is still the world’s 32nd-ranked player and one who’s won a major before, albeit in more familiar surroundings overseas.

Alexa Pano (+50000) was a much-heralded junior player who won in her rookie season last year, while Bailey Tardy (+50000) led this event entering the weekend last year and already has a win this year. If you’re simply targeting a few ceiling players at massive odds down the board, these two make sense.