- Marlins / Astros TV Channel: SCHN
The Miami Marlins (+180) visit CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-225) on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach, FL.
This season, the Marlins are 1-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 5-3 ATS.
Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +180 |
| Astros | -225 |
Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 56.9% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+2.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games at home (+8.68 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 3-4 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -13.57% ROI).
- 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -54.3% ROI
- 1-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.7 Units / -72.15% ROI
- 6-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +5 Units / 66.67% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 5-3 against the Run Line (+1.73 Units / 16.03% ROI).
- 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 34.33% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -32.15% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.54 Units / 17.91% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.8 MPH against his curves since the 2021 season (91 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 87.3
Trevor Rogers’ highest spin rate on curveballs inside since the 2021 season is 2370.0 RPM — 3rd fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 2801.0
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (20/91) against Trevor Rogers on curveballs since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 96th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers’ highest spin rate on changeups since the 2021 season is 2230.0 RPM — 8th fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 2627.6
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ronel Blanco has limited playing time.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are 93-13 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are 25-121 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Marlins were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are 15-11 (.577) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 79-47 (.627) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 163-11 (.937) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins grounded into 158 double plays in the 2023 season — most in MLB.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Astros are 21-5 (.808) against the run line (28.4% ROI) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Astros hitters slugged .460 on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 20% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
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