Minnesota vs Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 28

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Illinois coach Brad Underwood watches during the second half of the team's NCAA college basketball game against Michigan State, Friday, Jan. 13, 2023, in Champaign, Ill.
(AP Photo/Michael Allio)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 28, 2024, 12:02 PM
  • Illinois (14-10) is a -11.5 point favorite vs Minnesota (23-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 154.5 points
  • Minnesota / Illinois TV channel: BTN

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (23-4) visit State Farm Center to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (14-10) on Feb. 28. Tip off is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Champaign, IL.

Illinois is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Minnesota vs. Illinois Over/Under is 154.5 total points.

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Minnesota vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Minnesota+11.5 -110O 154.5 -110+500
Illinois -11.5 -110U 154.5 -110-700

Minnesota vs Illinois Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Illinois will win this college basketball game with 87.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Minnesota vs Illinois Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Minnesota will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Minnesota have covered the Spread in 25 of their last 31 games (+19.55 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Minnesota has hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Minnesota has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 31 games (+5.35 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 31 games (+12.10 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 31 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+3.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Illinois have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 31 games (+0.65 Units / 2% ROI)

Minnesota Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Minnesota has a 22-4 record against the spread this college basketball season (+17.65 Units / 59.53% ROI).

  • 16-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.5 Units / 7.33% ROI
  • 15-12 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • 12-15 when betting the Under for -4.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Illinois Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Illinois has a 14-10 record against the spread this college basketball season (+2.95 Units / 9.92% ROI).

  • 13-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -1.07% ROI
  • 19-8 when betting the Over for +10.2 Units / 34.34% ROI
  • 8-19 when betting the Under for -12.9 Units / -43.43% ROI

Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends:

Minnesota is shooting 63% from the free throw line (385/614) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 73%

Minnesota is shooting 64% from the free throw line (607/946) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 73%

Minnesota is shooting 64% from the free throw line (416/649) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 72%

Minnesota is shooting 63% from the free throw line (177/280) in the second half this season — lowest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 73%

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends:

Illinois has 22.0 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 39th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 19.3

Illinois is shooting 32% from three (446/1,389) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 16th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Illinois has averaged 1.31 points per shot (1,896 points/1,449 shots) this season — tied for 40th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Illinois has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.0 (246 assists/ 248 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 2nd lowest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Minnesota Defensive Stats & Trends:

Minnesota has averaged 5.7 steals per game (195 steals/34 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th lowest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 6.4

Minnesota has averaged 5.4 steals per game (287 steals/53 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th lowest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 6.0

Minnesota has allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three (232/609) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd highest among Power Conference defenses; League Avg: 34%

Minnesota has allowed opponents to shoot 32% from three (58/184) in the second half this season — 4th best among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 33%

Illinois Defensive Stats & Trends:

Illinois has averaged 29.7 defensive rebounds per game (683 rebounds/23 games) this season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.7

Illinois has allowed 5.8 made three-pointers per game this season — 4th best among Power Conference defenses; League Avg: 7.7

Illinois has averaged 29.7 defensive rebounds per game (683 rebounds/23 games) this season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.7

Illinois has allowed an average of 1.09 points per shot (1,620 points/1,482 shots) this season — tied for 6th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.23


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.