- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Cubs
- Astros vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | SCHN
The Houston Astros (-125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+105) on Thursday, April 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Astros are 7-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 17-7 ATS.
Astros vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 1-0, 3.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 2-0, 2.11 ERA
Astros vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -110 | -125 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -110 | +105 |
Astros vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Brantley has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.10 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 48 away games (+20.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 62 away games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 8-17 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 7-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 8-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 15-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 17-7 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 15-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Cubs vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Mervis (CHC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cubs vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .227 (15-for-66) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .350 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .542 (495 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .249 (494 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .307 — 97th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .268 (162 Total Bases / 605 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .129 (15-for-116) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .255 — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .408 (134 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .740 — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad has a strike rate of just 61% (635/1,047) against right-handed batters since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 19% (5/26) against Javier Assad on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Astros are 16-15 (.516) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Astros are 96-25 (.793) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 42-26 (.618) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Astros are 13-11 (.542) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Cubs are just 35-38 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are 22-18 (.550) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are just 21-27 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 699 strikeouts in 3,955 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .547 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .374.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,786/13,273 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
The Astros have won 90% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .186 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .230.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of 75% at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .461 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .867 (184 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .333 against Astros pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 5.91 (105.0 IP) over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .230 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Cubs vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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