- The Mariners are -170 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Astros / Mariners TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+140) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-170) on Monday, April 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 4-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 4-6 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski 0-1, 5.41 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 0-1, 3.00 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -170 | O 7 +105 | +140 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +140 | U 7 -125 | -170 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB game with 59.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+16.00 Units / 320% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 62% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+10.25 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+11.50 Units / 164% ROI)
- Logan Gilbert has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ryan Bliss has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 71 games at home (+10.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 3-6 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -29.32% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -17.62% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -27.09% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 17.1% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -19.93% ROI).
- 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.05 Units / -44.49% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -33.18% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 24.43% ROI
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Luke Raley (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Luke Raley (SEA) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -120 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a swing rate of just 37% (198/537) against Hayden Wesneski on sliders in 2023 — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — fourth Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski allowed a slugging percentage of .722 (39 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on low fastballs in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .430 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 13% (5/39) against Hayden Wesneski this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (2/11) against Hayden Wesneski this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .175 (315 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 47% (24/51) against Logan Gilbert this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert allowed an OPS of just .412 (297 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .417 (315 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 95-69 (.579) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners were 58-5 (.921) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Mariners were 33-7 (.825) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Mariners are 152-3 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners were 18-1 (.947) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are slugging just .125 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Astros hitters are averaging 4.60 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (963/6,435 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .206 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mariners are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners batted just .213 against LHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers walked 544 of 6,019 batters (9%) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners pitchers have walked 402 of 6,193 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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