- The Astros are -120 favorites vs the Royals
- Astros vs Royals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Astros / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | SCHN
The Houston Astros (-120) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+100) on Wednesday, April 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Astros are 4-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 7-4 ATS.
Astros vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 1-0, 0.69 ERA
Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -120 | -120 |
| Royals | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 +100 | +100 |
Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jon Singleton has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 105% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jon Singleton has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- Victor Caratini has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 away games (+6.50 Units / 76% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seth Lugo has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 55% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Cole Ragans has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 81 away games (+23.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+15.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 4-8 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -22.53% ROI).
- 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -40.51% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -44.32% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 35.23% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 7-4 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 14.14% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 23.86% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -38.98% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 34.63% ROI
Royals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Perez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Witt Jr. | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Melendez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Velazquez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Royals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| McCormick | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Pasquantino | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Velazquez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Melendez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Royals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Perez | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Witt Jr. | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Diaz | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Pasquantino | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Alvarez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Royals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (19/48) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (4/28) against Seth Lugo this season — 4th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 14% (7 SO in 49 PAs) this season — tied for 13th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 13th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2022 season (10th best among qualified RPs)– 90th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros are 104-63 (.623) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Astros were 13-7 (.650) after a loss as underdogs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Astros are 95-23 (.805) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 140-20 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals were just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals were just 36-29 (.554) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Royals were just 7-43 (.140) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Royals are just 12-85 (.124) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 673 strikeouts in 3,801 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 48% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Astros hitters are slugging .460 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Astros hitters have just 352 strikeouts in 1,951 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (3,072 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have walked 55 of 461 batters (12%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .177 against Royals pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in the 2023 season — best in MLB.
The Royals have won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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