- The Astros are -120 favorites vs the Royals
- Astros vs Royals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Royals TV Channel: SCHN | FDKC
The Houston Astros (-120) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+100) on Friday, April 25, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Astros are 13-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 10-16 ATS.
Astros vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski 1-1, 3.92 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 1-3, 3.99 ERA
Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -120 | -120 |
| Royals | +1.5 -175 | U 8 +100 | +100 |
Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+11.00 Units / 138% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games at home (+10.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.40 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+2.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 14-10 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 16.36% ROI).
- 13-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.84% ROI
- 8-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -27.62% ROI
- 14-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 19.36% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 10-16 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -29.9% ROI).
- 12-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -8.13% ROI
- 9-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -29.08% ROI
- 16-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.1 Units / 21.03% ROI
Royals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Royals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Royals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Royals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 3.5 -190 | 3.5 +140 |
| Hayden Wesneski (HOU) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hayden Wesneski allowed a slugging percentage of .722 (39 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on low fastballs in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .430 — first Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has not walked any of the 36 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has not walked any of the 36 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has walked 2% of right-handed batters this month (4 games) — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch strike rate of 74% (92/124) this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has located his pitches away 64% of the time (58/91) when behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 21% (156/753) against Seth Lugo since last season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 10th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has walked 4% of right-handed batters in the 2024 season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 87th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 1-66 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Astros are just 13-23 (.361) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros were 50-37 (.575) after a win in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 4-58 (.065) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .192.
The Royals are just 16-82 (.163) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 8-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .878.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances lasted only one pitch (926/6,107 PA’s) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Astros hitters had an OPS of .809 (1,801 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Astros hitters struck out just 327 times in 1,801 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Royals have won just 47% of games in which they have scored first on the road since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
The Royals have won 100% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Royals pitchers have struck out in the zone 59% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
More MLB Reading:
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