- The Astros are -135 favorites vs the Tigers
- Astros vs Tigers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Tigers TV Channel: SCHN | BSDT
The Houston Astros (-135) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+115) on Friday, May 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Astros are 13-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 18-19 ATS.
Astros vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 1-1, 4.03 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 1-1, 3.94 ERA
Astros vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -120 | -135 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 +100 | +115 |
Astros vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+21.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jon Singleton has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+19.00 Units / 211% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 36 games (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games (+21.40 Units / 153% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+8.60 Units / 61% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 48 away games (+20.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 62 away games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 99 games (+12.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.89 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.39 Units / 74% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 13-24 against the Run Line (-10.65 Units / -24.48% ROI).
- 13-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.6 Units / -35.38% ROI
- 13-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -26.65% ROI
- 22-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.65 Units / 18.52% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 18-19 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -4.36% ROI).
- 19-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.73% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -1.22% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -7.78% ROI
Tigers vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jake Rogers (DET) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Tigers vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andy Ibanez (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Tigers vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Tigers vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +130 |
| Casey Mize (DET) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (708/1,158) against Framber Valdez since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .296 (157 Total Bases / 530 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (795/1,682) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (154/239) against Framber Valdez with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Casey Mize allowed a batting average of .362 vs right-handed batters (second worst)– first Percentile and just .161 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth best among non-qualified SPs)– 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (8/71) against Casey Mize on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .362 (25-for-69) against Casey Mize this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .242 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (7/61) against Casey Mize on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Astros are 63-43 (.594) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Astros are 28-20 (.583) after a road loss since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Astros are 89-63 (.586) after a loss since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Astros are 44-29 (.603) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .460.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Tigers are 65-25 (.722) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Tigers are just 80-99 (.447) at home since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Tigers are just 24-136 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Tigers are just 25-58 (.301) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 717 strikeouts in 4,065 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,864/13,728 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters are slugging .460 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .911 (594 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (10,136 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .646 (10,136 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .355 against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Tigers are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed an OBP of .444 (99 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
Astros pitchers have walked 158 of 1,444 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros pitchers have a strike rate of just 61% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 278 of 3,205 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 3.83 (877.0 IP) on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
Tigers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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