- The Tigers are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Tigers Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Astros / Tigers TV Channel: SCHN | BSDT
The Houston Astros (+120) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (-145) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Astros are 14-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 18-20 ATS.
Astros vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier 2-0, 1.54 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal 4-0, 1.90 ERA
Astros vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -185 | O 7 +100 | +120 |
| Tigers | -1.5 +150 | U 7 -120 | -145 |
Astros vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 37 games (+20.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+18.65 Units / 155% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 38 games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 37 games (+10.85 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games (+20.40 Units / 136% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+8.60 Units / 61% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 48 away games (+20.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 62 away games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 99 games (+12.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.89 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.39 Units / 74% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 14-24 against the Run Line (-9.5 Units / -21.35% ROI).
- 14-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.6 Units / -32.39% ROI
- 13-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.8 Units / -28.61% ROI
- 23-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.65 Units / 20.4% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 18-20 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -6.81% ROI).
- 19-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -1.66% ROI
- 16-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -4.08% ROI
- 16-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -5% ROI
Tigers vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Javier Baez (DET) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Tigers vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Tigers vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Javier Baez (DET) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier (HOU) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Tarik Skubal (DET) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .168 (95-for-565) against Cristian Javier since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (46/229) against Cristian Javier since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (37/186) against Cristian Javier when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (80/364) against Cristian Javier since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tarik Skubal has a strike rate of 76% (147/194) in two strike counts this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has a strike rate of 76% (147/194) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has allowed an OPS of just .210 (63 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .680 — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has allowed a slugging percentage of just .083 (5 Total Bases / 60 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .387 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Astros are 44-29 (.603) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .460.
The Astros are 63-43 (.594) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Astros are just 8-13 (.381) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 100-27 (.787) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Tigers are just 25-58 (.301) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Tigers are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are 41-14 (.745) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Tigers are just 82-7 (.921) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 717 strikeouts in 4,068 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,868/13,766 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have just 177 strikeouts in 1,042 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 396 strikeouts in 2,218 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (10,140 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .646 (10,140 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .363 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strike rate of just 61% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros pitchers have walked 161 of 1,481 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 279 of 3,214 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Tigers won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Tigers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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