- The Astros are -115 favorites vs the Tigers
- Astros vs Tigers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Tigers TV Channel: SCHN | BSDT | MLBN
The Houston Astros (-115) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (-105) on Sunday, May 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
This season, the Astros are 14-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 19-20 ATS.
Astros vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 1-1, 4.50 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty 0-2, 3.92 ERA
Astros vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -120 | -115 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -175 | U 8 +100 | -105 |
Astros vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 38 games (+19.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+18.65 Units / 155% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+12.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+11.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+19.40 Units / 121% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 48 away games (+20.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 62 away games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 99 games (+12.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.89 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.39 Units / 74% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 14-25 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -24.16% ROI).
- 14-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.6 Units / -33.68% ROI
- 14-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -25.5% ROI
- 23-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.55 Units / 17.36% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 19-20 against the Run Line (-2.15 Units / -3.99% ROI).
- 20-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.68% ROI
- 17-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.55 Units / -1.41% ROI
- 16-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -7.61% ROI
Tigers vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Tigers vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Tigers vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Tigers vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander (HOU) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Jack Flaherty (DET) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (3/20) against Justin Verlander — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .246 (690 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .310 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of .400 (25 PA’s) with two-strikes — tied for highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .223 — second Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a strikeout rate of just 16% (4 SO in 25 PAs) with two-strikes — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 48% (28/58) against Jack Flaherty with runners in scoring position this season — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .328 (20-for-61) against Jack Flaherty when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .220 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 48% (28/58) against Jack Flaherty with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (116/314) against Jack Flaherty this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Astros are 108-72 (.600) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Astros are 63-43 (.594) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Astros are just 20-79 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Astros are 100-27 (.787) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Tigers are just 25-58 (.301) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Tigers are 41-14 (.745) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Tigers are just 24-136 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Tigers are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 726 strikeouts in 4,103 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .905 (607 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Astros hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros are batting .181 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (10,181 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .356 against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .647 (10,181 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have walked 166 of 1,522 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros pitchers have a strike rate of just 61% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros pitchers have allowed an OBP of .439 (107 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Astros have allowed 5.85 runs per game (117/20) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 280 of 3,223 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 107 of 1,443 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (610.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Tigers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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