- The Astros are +105 favorites vs the Twins
- Astros vs Twins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | SCHN
The Houston Astros (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-125) on Saturday, April 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Astros are 3-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 2-5 ATS.
Astros vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 1-0, 1.50 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 0-1, 27.03 ERA
Astros vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -105 | +105 |
| Twins | +1.5 -210 | U 7.5 -115 | -125 |
Astros vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.90 Units / 238% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+10.50 Units / 67% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+10.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+14.30 Units / 286% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 78% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+6.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 2-5 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -31.55% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -22.02% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -33.33% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 23.49% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 2-5 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -41.67% ROI).
- 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -46.31% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 37.91% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -45.81% ROI
Twins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1200 |
Twins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Twins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -295 |
Twins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti allowed an OPS of 1.051 (243 PA’s) versus the top of the order in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .758 — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti walked 21 of 137 batters (15%) with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed a slugging percentage of .606 (131 Total Bases / 216 ABs) versus the top of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .434 — first Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti allowed an OBP of .428 (243 PA’s) versus the top of the order in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .557 (68 Total Bases / 122 ABs) on elevated fastballs since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .359 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .146 (44-for-302) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .187 (26-for-139) against Bailey Ober when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (163/482) against Bailey Ober since last season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 94-68 (.580) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are 142-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 63-28 (.692) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Twins were 40-18 (.690) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Astros (10th best runs scored) today.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have chased 17% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Astros hitters struck out 1 time in 1 PA’s (100%) against LHP over the last week of the regular season (1 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put none of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 4 extra-base hits out of 5 total hits (80%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Twins are batting just .086 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .327 (64 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 54% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Twins pitchers have walked 895 of 12,365 batters (7%) since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 452 of 6,337 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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