- The Yankees are -120 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Yankees TV Channel: TBS | SCHN | YES
The Houston Astros (+100) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-120) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in New York City, NY.
This season, the Astros are 12-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 17-19 ATS.
Astros vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 1-0, 2.12 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Gil 2-1, 3.20 ERA
Astros vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -210 | O 8.5 -105 | +100 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -115 | -120 |
Astros vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 33 games (+19.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jon Singleton has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.10 Units / 235% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 33 games (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 33 games (+10.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+10.20 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games (+19.30 Units / 161% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 48 away games (+20.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 62 away games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+3.68 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 12-22 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -21.76% ROI).
- 12-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.85 Units / -36.04% ROI
- 11-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -31.39% ROI
- 21-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.85 Units / 23.26% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 17-19 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -1.61% ROI).
- 23-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 8.43% ROI
- 14-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.8 Units / -19.87% ROI
- 20-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 11.39% ROI
Yankees vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Yankees vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Yankees vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Yankees vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander (HOU) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
| Luis Gil (NYY) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has walked 7 of 30 left-handed batters (23%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .513 (682 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .711 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .216 (16-for-74) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .348 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .272 (171 Total Bases / 628 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Gil has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (20/46) over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Luis Gil has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (20/46) — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (26/81) against Luis Gil when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Gil has walked 10 of 54 batters (18%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Astros are 107-70 (.605) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Astros are 88-61 (.591) after a loss since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Astros are just 8-13 (.381) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 56-40 (.583) on the road since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Yankees are 50-50 (.500) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Yankees are 22-18 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Yankees are 67-39 (.632) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Yankees are 83-27 (.755) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .636.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 710 strikeouts in 4,033 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .545 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Astros hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .921 (582 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting .421 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Yankees are batting just .231 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Yankees are batting just .217 with two outs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees hitters are slugging just .394 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 56% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .216 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.77 (1761.2 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Yankees vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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