- The Mariners are -175 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays vs Mariners Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Blue Jays / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | RSN1 | TVA
The Toronto Blue Jays (+150) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-185) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Blue Jays are 19-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 19-19 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Urena 0-0, 8.60 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 2-3, 4.24 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -150 | O 8 -105 | +150 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -115 | -185 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 59.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+16.50 Units / 275% ROI)
- Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+20.10 Units / 76% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+18.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+14.00 Units / 156% ROI)
- Bryce Miller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+12.35 Units / 69% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 26 games (+13.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+5.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 24-15 against the Run Line (+6.6 Units / 11.74% ROI).
- 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -1.91% ROI
- 19-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -5.98% ROI
- 20-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.68 Units / -1.57% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 19-19 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 1.38% ROI).
- 22-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 3.52% ROI
- 23-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.55 Units / 20.55% ROI
- 13-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -29.96% ROI
Mariners vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -325 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Urena has a strikeout rate of just 32% (72 SO in 224 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Jose Urena has a strikeout rate of just 5% (5 SO in 99 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
11 of Jose Urena’s 41 breaking pitch strikeouts (27%) have been backdoor since last season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Jose Urena has struck out just 15% (33/213) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has a first-pitch in-zone of just 2% (19/855) since last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — sixth Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed an OPS of just .512 (324 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — 98th Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed an OBP of just .254 (704 PA’s) in the 2024 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 94th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 18% (40/222) against Bryce Miller in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Blue Jays are just 11-4 (.733) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays were just 6-73 (.076) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Blue Jays are just 24-94 (.203) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mariners are 3-13 (.188) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Mariners are 14-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Mariners were 58-5 (.921) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Mariners are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Blue Jays are batting just .237 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays hitters slugged just .349 against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .357 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .227 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners are batting just .215 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Mariners are batting just .210 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mariners batted just .214 at home in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .045 against Blue Jays pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .262 (1,786 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .307.
Mariners pitchers had an ERA of 2.83 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
More MLB Reading:
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