- The Mariners are -130 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Blue Jays / Mariners TV Channel: RSN1 | RTNW
The Toronto Blue Jays (+110) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-130) on Friday, May 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA, WA.
This season, the Blue Jays are 17-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 19-17 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 2-3, 3.86 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 0-0, 7.05 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -120 | +110 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 +100 | -130 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+6.40 Units / 160% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+18.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+16.00 Units / 229% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.90 Units / 99% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+5.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.37 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 15 away games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 22-15 against the Run Line (+4.6 Units / 8.75% ROI).
- 17-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -7.55% ROI
- 17-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.55 Units / -11.27% ROI
- 20-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.42 Units / 3.46% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 19-17 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 5.87% ROI).
- 22-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 9.64% ROI
- 21-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.55 Units / 16.67% ROI
- 13-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -26.28% ROI
Mariners vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .158 (9-for-57) against Kevin Gausman when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .237 — 97th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has located his fastball up for a strike 76% (800/1,058) of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has located his fastball up for a strike 76% (460/609) of the time since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (9-for-57) against Kevin Gausman when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 96th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (1,245/1,829) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo allowed a slugging percentage of .415 (154 Total Bases / 371 ABs) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — third Percentile.
Luis Castillo has struck out just 15% (13/84) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 13th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (441/652) this season — 2nd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 48% — 97th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Blue Jays are just 10-4 (.714) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Blue Jays are 29-17 (.630) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays were just 2-75 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mariners are 3-11 (.214) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Mariners were 58-5 (.921) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Mariners are 14-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Mariners are 24-2 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .227 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .473 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Blue Jays hitters slugged just .349 against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners are batting just .215 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Mariners are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .045 against Blue Jays pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .262 (1,768 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .307.
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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