- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Blue Jays / Mets TV Channel: RSN | WPIX
The Toronto Blue Jays (+120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on Sunday, April 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Blue Jays are 5-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 4-4 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Bowden Francis 1-0, 3.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 1-0, 3.00 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -130 | +120 |
| Mets | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 +110 | -145 |
Blue Jays vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+20.50 Units / 228% ROI)
- Bowden Francis has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bowden Francis has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+7.65 Units / 153% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 79% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+28.00 Units / 400% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+11.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.30 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 116 games (+22.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+17.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games at home (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 6-3 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 33.62% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 5.24% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -34.54% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 27.23% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 4-4 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -6.93% ROI).
- 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 12.83% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -53.33% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 44.19% ROI
Mets vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -325 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Mets vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andres Gimenez (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Mets vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Bowden Francis (TOR) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bowden Francis has allowed an OBP of just .246 (566 PA’s) since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .310 — 100th Percentile.
Bowden Francis allowed a BABIP of .212 in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .176 (55-for-313) against Bowden Francis’ fastball since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .187 (98-for-523) against Bowden Francis since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 99th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH on the 173 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.
Opponents are hitting .405 (15-for-37) against David Peterson in close and late situations since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .231 — second Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an OBP of .296 (530 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (69/125) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays are just 58-86 (.403) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Mets (15th best runs allowed) today.
The Blue Jays are 27-15 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Blue Jays were just 2-75 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets were just 69-6 (.920) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Mets were 28-24 (.538) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .065 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .462 (67 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .483 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Blue Jays hitters have a swing rate of just 23% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .121 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets are batting just .130 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
The Mets are batting just .191 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 615 of 6,392 batters (10%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% against Mets pitchers over the last 14 days of the regular season (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
More MLB Reading:
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