- The Braves are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Braves vs Astros Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Braves / Astros TV Channel: BSSE | SCHN | ESPN+
The Atlanta Braves (-135) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (+115) on Wednesday, April 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Braves are 11-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 6-13 ATS.
Braves vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 1-0, 8.49 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: J.P. France 0-2, 8.23 ERA
Braves vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +125 | O 9.5 -120 | -135 |
| Astros | +1.5 -150 | U 9.5 +100 | +115 |
Braves vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Max Fried has hit the Earned Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.15 Units / 51% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+5.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 away games (+5.70 Units / 75% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Victor Caratini has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Victor Caratini has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 73% ROI)
- Victor Caratini has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 84 of their last 147 games (+16.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 109 games (+3.80 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games at home (+8.58 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 8-8 against the Run Line (+0.2 Units / 1.08% ROI).
- 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 5.64% ROI
- 10-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.55 Units / 25.93% ROI
- 5-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -33.71% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 6-13 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -28.02% ROI).
- 6-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -42.59% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -14.15% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 5.73% ROI
Astros vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Travis D'Arnaud (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Astros vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Astros vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 79.3 MPH (20 batted balls) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 88.9 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .234 (406 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 80.9 MPH on inside pitches since last season (82 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 86.2
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (148/251) against Max Fried since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 21% (107/501) against J.P. France in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (31/226) against J.P. France on elevated fastballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 16% (131/823) against J.P. France in non-two strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 29% (18/62) against J.P. France on changeups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Braves are 48-43 (.527) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 34-49 (.410) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Braves were 25-31 (.446) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Astros are 41-23 (.641) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .459.
The Astros are 96-24 (.800) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 99-24 (.805) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Astros are 85-55 (.607) after a loss since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .393 (806 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 680 strikeouts in 3,853 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .184 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Astros hitters have put 45% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Astros hitters have just 359 strikeouts in 2,003 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 6.38 (55.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have walked 83 of 746 batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Astros vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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