- The Braves are -130 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Braves vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Braves / Diamondbacks TV Channel: BSSO | DBTV | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Braves are 50-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 45-46 ATS.
Braves vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 11-3, 2.72 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 6-4, 3.08 ERA
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -115 | -120 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -105 | +100 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 75 games (+28.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 39 away games (+13.94 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 away games (+11.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.30 Units / 4% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+13.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 91 games (+5.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 41-48 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -6.73% ROI).
- 50-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.2 Units / -8.05% ROI
- 30-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.6 Units / -29.44% ROI
- 54-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.95 Units / 21.22% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 45-46 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -5.88% ROI).
- 45-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -4.05% ROI
- 47-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 1.63% ROI
- 41-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -10.14% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
19 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 43% (20 SO in 47 PAs) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .155 (34-for-220) against Chris Sale’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .199 (72-for-362) against Chris Sale this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 93rd Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .328 (126 Total Bases / 384 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .394 — 96th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .266 (685 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 92nd Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .596 (414 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .688 — 100th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .314 (202 Total Bases / 644 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — 95th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Braves are 29-48 (.377) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Braves are 18-81 (.182) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Braves are 34-67 (.337) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 8-17 (.320) after a home win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Diamondbacks are 38-9 (.809) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-37 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Diamondbacks are just 154-26 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .486 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Braves have an average Exit Velocity of 90.7 MPH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves have barrels in 7% of PA’s since last season (722/9,565) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Braves hitters are slugging .458 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 66% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .282 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
27% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.4 MPH this season (2,083 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.4 MPH (2,083 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks have won just 13% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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