- The Braves are -130 favorites vs the Mariners
- Braves vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Braves / Mariners TV Channel: BSSO | RTNW | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-130) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+110) on Tuesday, April 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Braves are 19-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 13-15 ATS.
Braves vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 2-0, 0.73 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 2-4, 4.12 ERA
Braves vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 7 +100 | -130 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -160 | U 7 -120 | +110 |
Braves vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+12.20 Units / 203% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+16.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+13.00 Units / 325% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 54% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 109 games (+3.80 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games (+7.14 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 13-13 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.5% ROI).
- 19-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 13.08% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -11.36% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 3.32% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 13-15 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -7.52% ROI).
- 15-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -5.81% ROI
- 6-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.1 Units / -54.03% ROI
- 20-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.3 Units / 44.93% ROI
Mariners vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mariners vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mariners vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed an OBP of just .040 (25 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has induced opposing hitters to ground into 4 double plays in 11 opportunities (36%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 17 of 346 right-handed batters (5%) since the 2022 season — tied for 7th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .156 (10-for-64) against Reynaldo Lopez on low fastballs since the 2022 season — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 96th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed a just .282 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 88th Percentile and .662 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– third Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of .662 (45 Total Bases / 68 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .393 — third Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .353 (24-for-68) against Luis Castillo this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .327 (17-for-52) against Luis Castillo when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — ninth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Braves are 34-51 (.400) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Braves are 17-53 (.243) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Braves are 49-44 (.527) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mariners are 152-6 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mariners are 88-13 (.871) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Mariners are 48-7 (.873) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Mariners are 32-35 (.478) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Braves pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.2 MPH (620 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.2 MPH this season (620 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 1.26 (107.0 IP) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
Mariners pitchers have walked 204 of 3,164 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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