- The Braves are -150 favorites vs the Mets
- Braves vs Mets Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Braves / Mets TV Channel: FS1 | BSSE | SNY
The Atlanta Braves (-155) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+130) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Braves are 23-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 18-19 ATS.
Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 2-1, 4.19 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-0, 1.35 ERA
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -120 | -155 |
| Mets | +1.5 -135 | U 7.5 +100 | +130 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 60.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+16.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+13.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+9.10 Units / 76% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+8.05 Units / 59% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 109 games (+3.80 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 18-17 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 2.98% ROI).
- 23-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 6.38% ROI
- 12-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -28.01% ROI
- 21-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 20.31% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 18-19 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -1.29% ROI).
- 18-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -2.85% ROI
- 17-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -7.7% ROI
- 18-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -1.18% ROI
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott (NYM) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 73% (61/83) against Max Fried this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 81.4 MPH (71 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.0 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 75% (30/40) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH since last season (277 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 89.2
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Christian Scott has thrown his slider 48% of the time (45/94) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .111 (2-for-18) against Christian Scott — 5th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .228 — 92nd Percentile.
Christian Scott allowed a slugging percentage of just .111 (2 Total Bases / 18 ABs) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .370 — 98th Percentile.
Christian Scott has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (41/75) against right-handed batters over the past seven days (1 games) — highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 34-53 (.391) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Braves are 17-57 (.230) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Braves are 49-46 (.516) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 29-35 (.453) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 7-135 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Mets are 167-3 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mets are 154-16 (.906) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Mets are just 14-72 (.163) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .464 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Braves hitters are slugging .584 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters are slugging .506 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .827 (7,588 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .815 (268 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.047.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (9,571 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .620 (739 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Mets are batting just .230 at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.8 MPH (815 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.8 MPH this season (815 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 165 of 1,427 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 41 of 334 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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