- The Braves are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Braves vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | FDSO | FDSE
The Atlanta Braves (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Thursday, May 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Braves are 24-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 25-24 ATS.
Braves vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 3-2, 2.33 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 2-5, 5.92 ERA
Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -115 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -105 | +130 |
Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+14.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+14.05 Units / 234% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+11.10 Units / 159% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Walks Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.20 Units / 41% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.97 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.17 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.95 Units / 99% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+5.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 21-26 against the Run Line (-5.02 Units / -8.91% ROI).
- 24-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.68 Units / -13.4% ROI
- 18-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -20.06% ROI
- 26-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.4 Units / 12.24% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 25-24 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- 22-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.52 Units / -1.01% ROI
- 23-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -5.52% ROI
- 24-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -2.66% ROI
Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed an OPS of just .134 (38 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .693 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .121 (8-for-66) against AJ Smith-Shawver this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed a slugging percentage of just .136 (9 Total Bases / 66 ABs) this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 100th Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed a slugging percentage of just .029 (1 Total Bases / 35 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .395 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (1,063/2,089) of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams had a strike rate of just 51% (254/498) on sliders in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .480 (12-for-25) against Trevor Williams’ elevated fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .227 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown low pitches 70% of the time (325/467) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 4-18 (.182) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Braves are 76-61 (.555) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Nationals (25th best runs scored) today.
The Braves were 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Braves are 15-7 (.682) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 65-96 (.401) after a win since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Nationals are just 156-182 (.460) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Nationals are just 82-102 (.443) at home since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .313 against Nationals pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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