- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Braves / Padres TV Channel: ESPN2
The Atlanta Braves (+100) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:38pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Braves are 89-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 84-79 ATS.
Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 11-10, 3.26 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 6-5, 3.91 ERA
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -250 | O 6.5 +105 | +100 |
| Padres | -1.5 +175 | U 6.5 -125 | -120 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 149 games (+40.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 31 away games (+13.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.55 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 86 games (+22.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 131 games (+11.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.95 Units / 59% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+4.75 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 75-88 against the Run Line (-17.35 Units / -8.75% ROI).
- 89-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.95 Units / -8.57% ROI
- 59-98 when betting on the total runs Over for -48 Units / -26.92% ROI
- 98-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +33.05 Units / 18.3% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 84-79 against the Run Line (+8.15 Units / 4.01% ROI).
- 94-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.4 Units / 4.67% ROI
- 83-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.08% ROI
- 76-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -16 Units / -8.87% ROI
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove (SD) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (113/183) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .188 (15-for-80) against Max Fried on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (286/483) against Max Fried this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .153 (13-for-85) against Max Fried on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .269 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has not walked any of the 18 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has a first-pitch strike rate of 75% (36/48) in his last two starts — tied for 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .071 (2-for-28) against Joe Musgrove with two-strikes in his last two starts — tied for 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .147 — 88th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has not allowed a walk in his last 92 PAs against a RHH dating back to August 23rd — Jacob deGrom has the longest active streak at 108.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Braves are 27-16 (.628) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 55-61 (.474) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Braves are 50-92 (.352) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are 127-21 (.858) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Padres are 33-13 (.717) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Padres are 28-20 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 72-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .820 (2,948 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Braves hitters are slugging .682 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Braves hitters are slugging .483 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Braves hitters are slugging .458 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 1,077 strikeouts in 6,103 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have just 799 strikeouts in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Padres are batting .275 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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