- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Braves / Phillies TV Channel: WCAU | BSSO
The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+105) on Friday, March 29, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 3:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Braves are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 0-0 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +140 | O 7 -110 | -125 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -165 | U 7 -110 | +105 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s game with 53.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Braden Shewmake has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last game (+1.35 Units / 135% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last away game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in his last away game (+1.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in his last away game (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Runs Over in his last game at home (+2.10 Units / 210% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Runs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 away games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.34 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 39% (635/1,644) against Spencer Strider in the 2023 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 42% (332/783) against Spencer Strider in the 2023 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 45% (135/299) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 54% (351/653) against Spencer Strider on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler located 44% of his pitches inside (277/624) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler located 43% of his pitches inside (910/2,131) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season (189 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Zack Wheeler located 40% of his pitches inside (1,246/3,155) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among in NL; League Avg: 32% — 95th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 164-34 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves are 47-41 (.534) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves were 30-46 (.395) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Braves were 25-31 (.446) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies were 70-7 (.909) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2023 — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Phillies were 11-9 (.550) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Phillies were 52-37 (.584) after a win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Braves hitters slugged .509 at home in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Phillies won 60% of their home games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Phillies batted .166 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies hitters chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 49% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Phillies won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 901 times in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
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