- The Braves are -140 favorites vs the Phillies
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The Atlanta Braves () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Saturday, March 30, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Braves are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 0-1 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s game with 57.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 21 away games (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 away games (+8.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 away games (+8.45 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.20 Units / 85% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 41 games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 away games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.34 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 140% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 74.07% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 95.24% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -100% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 95.24% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -100% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .432 (200 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .725 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season (162 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (123/211) against Max Fried in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .223 (385 PA’s) versus the top of the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (334/1,064) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a chase rate of 35% (264/748) against Aaron Nola in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 451 of Aaron Nola’s 994 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 45%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 47-41 (.534) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves were 30-46 (.395) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Braves are 41-85 (.325) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 58-38 (.604) after a home win since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Phillies were 19-11 (.633) after a home loss in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves hitters are slugging .480 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .513 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Phillies hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 25th hardest ball in play hit (118.6 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
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