The Atlanta Braves (+120) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) on Tuesday, February 27, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Bradenton, FL.
Last season, the Braves were 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates were 0-3 ATS.
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Braves | +120 |
| Pirates | -145 |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.30 Units / 77% ROI)
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 away games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Braves went 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 50% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 105% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -100% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Pirates went 0-3 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -34.38% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 26.47% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of 43% (84/195) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 48% (162/336) against Chris Sale with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale had a strikeout rate of 43% (68/157) on low non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .162 (24-for-148) against Chris Sale’s curve and slider in the 2023 season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 93rd Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has averaged 88.6 MPH on fastballs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average spin rate of 1997.1 RPM on fastballs since last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2234.5 — fifth Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has averaged 79.5 MPH on changeups since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.3 — third Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.8 MPH against his curves since last season (108 balls in play) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 87.4
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves were 28-46 (.378) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Braves are 46-41 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 164-34 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 56-80 (.412) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Pirates were 34-7 (.829) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 42% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 49% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after scoring a run on offense in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
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