- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Braves vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Braves / Pirates TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | SNPT
The Atlanta Braves (-150) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Saturday, May 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Braves are 18-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 13-26 ATS.
Braves vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 2-2, 3.00 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 2-3, 3.21 ERA
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | O 9 -110 | -150 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | U 9 -110 | +125 |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eli White has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.25 Units / 59% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 20 games (+20.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games at home (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+2.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 32 games (+1.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 17-21 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -9.05% ROI).
- 18-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -15.83% ROI
- 16-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -11.94% ROI
- 19-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 3.75% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 13-26 against the Run Line (-18.5 Units / -36.56% ROI).
- 13-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.2 Units / -29.73% ROI
- 16-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.95 Units / -16.26% ROI
- 21-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 8.13% ROI
Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Verdugo (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Pirates vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
AJ Smith-Shawver has walked 26% of batters with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed an OPS of just .220 (28 PA’s) this month (1 game{NumGameSuffix}) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .688 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .116 (5-for-43) against AJ Smith-Shawver in his last two starts — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has walked 15% of right-handed batters in his last two starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of 1.120 (30 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of .486 (156 Total Bases / 321 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% (89/232) against Andrew Heaney in two-strike counts since last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (217/595) against Andrew Heaney since last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — eighth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 4-16 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Braves are 5-14 (.263) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Braves are just 10-3 (.769) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Braves are 125-85 (.595) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 7-58 (.108) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Pirates are just 0-14 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Pirates are just 11-38 (.224) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates are just 5-14 (.263) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (4,824 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Pirates have won just 44% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 77%.
The Pirates are batting just .177 when leading off an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 34% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Braves vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
