- The Braves are -220 favorites vs the Pirates
- Braves vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Pirates TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | SNPT | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-220) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Braves are 19-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 14-26 ATS.
Braves vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 1-3, 4.08 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 1-3, 6.24 ERA
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -115 | -220 |
| Pirates | +1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -105 | +180 |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 62.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eli White has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Chris Sale has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 25 games (+22.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 38% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games (+9.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+3.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.15 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 17-22 against the Run Line (-5.1 Units / -11.02% ROI).
- 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -13.66% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -14.17% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 6.01% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 14-26 against the Run Line (-17.5 Units / -33.72% ROI).
- 13-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.2 Units / -31.28% ROI
- 16-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -18.36% ROI
- 22-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 10.19% ROI
Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alexander Canario (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +100 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
10 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
10 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among among NL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
42 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since last season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
32 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2024 season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carmen Mlodzinski has a in-zone of 8% (83/1,089) against right-handed batters since the 2023 season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 2% — 100th Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a in-zone of 11% (83/742) against right-handed batters since last season — best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 3% — 100th Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a in-zone of 11% (83/742) against right-handed batters since last season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a in-zone of 6% (39/625) in two strike counts since the 2023 season — best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 2% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 4-16 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Braves are 5-14 (.263) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Braves are 73-60 (.549) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Pirates (24th best runs scored) today.
The Braves are 125-85 (.595) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 0-14 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 7-58 (.108) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Pirates are just 11-38 (.224) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .358 against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .506 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .634 (1,110 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .329 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers walked 85 of 1,447 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
More MLB Reading:
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