- The Braves are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
- Braves vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Pirates TV Channel: BSSE | ESPN+ | SNPT
The Atlanta Braves (-150) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Saturday, May 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Braves are 29-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 28-24 ATS.
Braves vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 2-1, 1.56 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 5-3, 3.86 ERA
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -110 | -150 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -110 | +125 |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+17.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+14.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 away games (+14.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+12.10 Units / 303% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+11.50 Units / 164% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+10.95 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+8.85 Units / 67% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 34 games (+20.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 35 games (+5.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.30 Units / 34% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 24-24 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 3.07% ROI).
- 29-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -0.6% ROI
- 16-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.55 Units / -31.61% ROI
- 30-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.4 Units / 23.24% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 28-24 against the Run Line (+1.76 Units / 2.52% ROI).
- 24-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -10.39% ROI
- 25-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -1.92% ROI
- 24-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.12 Units / -5.47% ROI
Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .171 (13-for-76) against Reynaldo Lopez on low fastballs since the 2022 season — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .270 — 96th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 37 of 223 left-handed batters (17%) since last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — fifth Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed an OPS of just .330 (272 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .476 — 94th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed an OBP of just .254 (386 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — tied for 10th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .301 — 94th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .351 (655 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — eighth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .278 (163-for-586) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — seventh Percentile.
Mitch Keller has walked 56 of 657 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 17th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 67% (352/522) vs left-handed batters this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 90th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 49-48 (.505) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Braves are 29-41 (.414) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Braves are 45-96 (.319) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 10-15 (.400) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Pirates are 49-8 (.860) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
The Pirates are just 129-68 (.655) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Pirates are just 28-43 (.394) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters are slugging .495 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Braves hitters are slugging .697 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Braves hitters are slugging .475 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 42 strikeouts in 103 PA’s (41%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters have 1,110 strikeouts in 4,413 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates are batting just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.1 MPH (1,145 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,351 of 14,477 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers this season is 403.0 feet — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 395.9
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 2,349 times since the 2022 season — 3rd most in MLB.
Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Braves vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
