- The Rays are -130 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Rays Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Braves / Rays TV Channel: FSUN | FDSO | FDSE
The Atlanta Braves (+110) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-130) on Friday, April 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Braves are 2-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 3-9 ATS.
Braves vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 0-0, 6.76 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 1-0, 4.91 ERA
Braves vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -105 | +110 |
| Rays | -1.5 +154 | U 9 -115 | -130 |
Braves vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryce Elder has hit the Walks Allowed Under in his last 5 away games (+5.45 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+11.40 Units / 127% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 55% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 102 of their last 165 games (+39.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 88 of their last 156 games (+11.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 85 away games (+3.65 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 85 away games (+2.00 Units / 2% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 98 of their last 161 games (+31.41 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 94 of their last 161 games (+20.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 161 games (+19.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 4-7 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -29.89% ROI).
- 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -63.61% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -21.31% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 12.45% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 3-9 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -53.36% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -21.91% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -35.58% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 29.12% ROI
Rays vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Rays vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jake Mangum (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rays vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Bryce Elder (ATL) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has averaged 89.8 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — fourth Percentile.
Bryce Elder has struck out just 14% (74/510) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Bryce Elder has averaged 90.0 MPH on fastballs since the 2023 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — fourth Percentile.
Bryce Elder located 53% of his pitches down (385/732) on the first pitch of at-bats in 2023 — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 89th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of 39% (7 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Taj Bradley induced opposing hitters to ground into just 2 double plays in 60 opportunities (3%) in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 11% — first Percentile.
Taj Bradley had a strikeout rate of 35% (79/225) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 17% (27/160) against Taj Bradley on the first pitch of at-bats in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Braves are just 3-9 (.250) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Braves were 24-16 (.600) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Phillies (12th best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are 24-102 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Braves were just 7-42 (.143) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Rays were 16-64 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Rays are 138-7 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Rays are 155-5 (.969) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Rays are 74-1 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters are slugging .476 against LHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of 100% on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have 371 strikeouts in 1,477 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters have grounded into 9 double plays in 37 opportunities (24%) this month (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 28 of 431 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers walked 439 of 5,994 batters (7%) in 2023 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers did not pick-off any runners from first base in 2023 — lowest in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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