- The Braves are +100 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Braves vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Braves / Red Sox TV Channel: FOX
The Atlanta Braves (+100) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-120) on Saturday, May 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Braves are 23-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 23-23 ATS.
Braves vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Grant Holmes 2-3, 4.14 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 1-1, 5.52 ERA
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +154 | O 9.5 -105 | +100 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | U 9.5 -115 | -120 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.10 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+11.00 Units / 122% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+6.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 20-25 against the Run Line (-5.27 Units / -9.96% ROI).
- 23-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.03 Units / -11.74% ROI
- 16-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.5 Units / -23.05% ROI
- 25-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.55 Units / 15.36% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 23-23 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 2.35% ROI).
- 22-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.56 Units / -14.76% ROI
- 22-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.02 Units / -5.95% ROI
- 23-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -1.58% ROI
Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Verdugo (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .116 (8-for-69) against Grant Holmes when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .706 (12 GB hits out of 17 GBs) against Grant Holmes with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .116 (8-for-69) against Grant Holmes when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Grant Holmes has allowed an OBP of just .187 (75 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .706 (247 Total Bases / 350 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .568 — first Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .589 (337 Total Bases / 572 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .483 — second Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has an average spin rate of 1978.3 RPM on sliders since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 2435.7 — third Percentile.
Lucas Giolito threw his changeup 32% of the time (207/652) when behind in the count in 2023 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 93rd Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 4-17 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Braves are 5-15 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Braves were 24-16 (.600) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Phillies (12th best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are just 9-42 (.176) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 5-75 (.062) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 9-14 (.391) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 41-158 (.206) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 43% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers walked 85 of 1,447 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 30% against the Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
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