- The Braves are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Braves vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Braves / Red Sox TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | NESN | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Sunday, May 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Braves are 23-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 23-23 ATS.
Braves vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 2-3, 3.30 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-0, 2.36 ERA
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -102 | -130 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -118 | +110 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+11.60 Units / 290% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.10 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+11.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+10.70 Units / 71% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.80 Units / 245% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 54% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 42 games (+8.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+4.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.83 Units / 14% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 20-25 against the Run Line (-5.27 Units / -9.7% ROI).
- 23-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.03 Units / -13.02% ROI
- 17-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -20.59% ROI
- 25-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 12.84% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 23-23 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 2.31% ROI).
- 23-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.56 Units / -12.98% ROI
- 23-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.02 Units / -3.9% ROI
- 23-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -3.68% ROI
Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -118 |
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 3% of right-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed an OBP of just .235 (81 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .301 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (18-for-108) against Spencer Schwellenbach’s non-fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .213 — 88th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has a first-pitch strike rate of 69% (152/220) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 90th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 54% (266/497) on sliders in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OPS of .923 (31 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .500 — second Percentile.
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 57% (272/473) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (8/40) against Brayan Bello in late innings since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 23-126 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Braves are 4-17 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Braves are just 15-5 (.750) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Braves are 5-15 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 6-75 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox are just 41-158 (.206) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Red Sox are just 10-14 (.417) after a loss this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have 330 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th most in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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