- The Brewers are -115 favorites vs the Astros
- Brewers vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Brewers / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-110) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-110) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Brewers are 26-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 18-26 ATS.
Brewers vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 3-1, 3.66 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 0-4, 7.88 ERA
Brewers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -105 | -110 |
| Astros | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -130 | -110 |
Brewers vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+24.00 Units / 600% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+19.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 22 away games (+16.05 Units / 73% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+15.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 43 games (+22.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 17 games (+19.75 Units / 116% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 23 games at home (+17.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+14.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games (+9.59 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 23-20 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.25% ROI).
- 26-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.9 Units / 17.62% ROI
- 26-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.6 Units / 16.1% ROI
- 17-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -24.05% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 18-26 against the Run Line (-8 Units / -15.22% ROI).
- 19-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.6 Units / -20.52% ROI
- 16-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -23.28% ROI
- 25-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.4 Units / 15.18% ROI
Astros vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Astros vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 42% (47/113) against Freddy Peralta this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .197 (61-for-309) against Freddy Peralta when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 33% (112 SO in 341 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has struck out 36% (34/95) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .530 (35-for-66) against Hunter Brown in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .319 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed a slugging percentage of .864 (57 Total Bases / 66 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .533 — first Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .550 (60 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .319 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .471 against Hunter Brown this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 0 Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 27-51 (.346) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Brewers are 47-37 (.560) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Brewers are 40-42 (.488) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Astros are 173-18 (.906) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Astros are 29-20 (.592) after a road loss since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Astros are 87-17 (.837) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Astros are 17-17 (.500) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging .459 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .356.
Brewers hitters have 72 strikeouts in 286 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have 13 extra-base hits out of 54 total hits (just 24%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers hitters have chased 22% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 732 strikeouts in 4,155 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Astros hitters have just 411 strikeouts in 2,305 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 289 strikeouts in 1,684 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (1825.0 IP) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have walked 179 of 1,697 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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