- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Brewers / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSWI | MLBN
The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Friday, May 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Brewers are 19-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 22-10 ATS.
Brewers vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Joe Ross 1-3, 5.41 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski 2-0, 0.87 ERA
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -105 | +105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -115 | -125 |
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 16 away games (+14.60 Units / 91% ROI)
- Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 19 games (+14.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.20 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 games (+15.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 18 games (+14.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+11.15 Units / 59% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 15-15 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -7.21% ROI).
- 19-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 26.07% ROI
- 18-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 16.1% ROI
- 12-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -23.2% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 22-10 against the Run Line (+9.55 Units / 20.32% ROI).
- 19-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 18.64% ROI
- 14-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -16.53% ROI
- 18-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 7.85% ROI
Cubs vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Mervis (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cubs vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Tauchman (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Cubs vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyler Black (MIL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .382 (13-for-34) against Joe Ross versus the bottom of the order this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .225 — fourth Percentile.
Joe Ross has walked 7 of 45 batters (16%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (37/102) against Joe Ross this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ross has struck out just 13% (8/60) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (24/56) against Hayden Wesneski this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has a strike rate of 75% (94/126) this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OBP of just .179 (39 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .312 — 98th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has walked 1 of 39 batters (3%) this season — tied for 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are 26-47 (.356) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Brewers are 36-22 (.621) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 40-92 (.303) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Brewers are 32-28 (.533) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are 38-21 (.644) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Cubs are 23-19 (.548) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are just 36-38 (.486) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have drawn 27 walks in 201 PA’s (13%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .331 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .698 (3,449 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Brewers are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .356 (488 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Cubs are batting just .189 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .228.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of 77% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .491 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .372.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 16 double plays in 253 opportunities (6%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .236 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 43% of their games since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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