- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers / Mets TV Channel: SNY | MLBN | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers () visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets () on Saturday, March 30, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Brewers are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 0-1 ATS.
Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | O | ||
| Mets | U |
Brewers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- DJ Stewart has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.25 Units / 88% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 158 games (+6.70 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 47.62% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 95.24% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 83.33% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -100% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 83.33% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
DL Hall has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 21.0.
DL Hall has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.2 innings pitched — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 19.1.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino had an ERA of 6.65 (89.1 IP)in the 2023 season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.28 — fourth Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed an OPS of .702 (230 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .526 — second Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .851 (74 Total Bases / 87 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .582 — first Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed a slugging percentage of .653 (179 Total Bases / 274 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .503 — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers were 24-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers were 42-28 (.600) after a loss in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Brewers were 37-11 (.771) when they hit 2 or more home runs in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
The Brewers are 45-26 (.634) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets are 47-28 (.627) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Mets are 152-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have 805 strikeouts in 3,248 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .328 (8,449 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Mets hitters have just 1,749 strikeouts in 8,449 PA’s (21%) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .346 (1,474 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers had an ERA of 3.82 (703.0 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents batted just .226 against Brewers pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Aaron Ashby (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Out
- Elvis Peguero (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, Out
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, Out
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, Out
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