- The Brewers are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Brewers vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Brewers / Padres TV Channel: BSWI | PDTV | MLBN
The Milwaukee Brewers (-120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+100) on Thursday, June 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Brewers are 44-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 38-40 ATS.
Brewers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson 4-3, 3.84 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Adam Mazur 0-2, 7.82 ERA
Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -110 | -120 |
| Padres | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -110 | +100 |
Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+14.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+13.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+29.50 Units / 421% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+19.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+17.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+16.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+15.90 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 74 games (+12.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 away games (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+6.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 away games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+6.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+3.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 39-35 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1.01% ROI).
- 44-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.6 Units / 13.7% ROI
- 38-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.4 Units / 4.2% ROI
- 32-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.75 Units / -11.91% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 38-40 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 0.32% ROI).
- 38-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -10% ROI
- 38-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -5.38% ROI
- 39-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -3.3% ROI
Padres vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -550 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Padres vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Mazur (SD) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Bryse Wilson (MIL) | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -185 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (200/1,025) against Bryse Wilson since last season — 3rd lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed an OBP of just .242 (335 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .304 — 97th Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 23% (26 SO in 113 PAs) on low non-fastballs since last season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — fifth Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 38% (111 SO in 289 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Mazur has walked 10 of 32 left-handed batters (31%) this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Adam Mazur has walked 13 of 61 batters (21%) this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Adam Mazur has allowed an OBP of .594 (32 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .325 — first Percentile.
Adam Mazur has struck out just 3% (1/32) of left-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 20% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 30-57 (.345) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 34-15 (.694) after a home loss since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Brewers are 44-102 (.301) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 7-21 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Padres are just 10-153 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres are just 4-163 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Padres are just 1-102 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .288 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Brewers are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,278 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Brewers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Padres are batting .195 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Padres are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Padres hitters have just 366 strikeouts in 1,963 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.67 (1048.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 22 of 155 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (18 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,786 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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