- The Brewers are -130 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: SNPT | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Thursday, April 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 15-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 15-10 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 2-0, 1.90 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 2-2, 4.80 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +145 | O 7 -120 | -130 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | U 7 +100 | +110 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 11-12 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 15-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 13-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 10-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 15-10 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 13-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 12-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 13-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 37% (33 SO in 90 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 69% (33 SO in 48 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .204 (57-for-280) against Freddy Peralta when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 97th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 69% (18 SO in 26 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .354 (610 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .285 (156-for-548) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — seventh Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (18/52) against Mitch Keller this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 15th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has walked 52 of 612 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 18th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 29-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Brewers are 38-90 (.297) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 24-45 (.348) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Brewers are 72-12 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are 16-9 (.640) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Pirates are just 78-95 (.451) at home since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Pirates are just 67-15 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have drawn 18 walks in 126 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Brewers are batting just .189 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Brewers hitters have 33 strikeouts in 126 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .283 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .380.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Pirates are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters have 75 strikeouts in 285 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates hitters have 381 strikeouts in 1,138 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Brewers pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,263 of 13,451 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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