- The Brewers are -105 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: SNPT | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-102) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-118) on Saturday, May 24, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 25-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 20-32 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Quinn Priester 1-2, 4.62 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-6, 3.88 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 +100 | -102 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -120 | -118 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+16.00 Units / 178% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+7.60 Units / 190% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 48 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.62 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+3.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 26-25 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -5.44% ROI).
- 25-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -5.54% ROI
- 20-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -12 Units / -20.92% ROI
- 29-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +7 Units / 12.25% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 20-32 against the Run Line (-18.5 Units / -27.72% ROI).
- 18-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.85 Units / -23.96% ROI
- 19-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -23.88% ROI
- 30-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.1 Units / 15.78% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
| Quinn Priester (MIL) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Quinn Priester has a strike rate of just 57% (184/323) vs left-handed batters this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .190 (4-for-21) against Quinn Priester on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .343 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (14/20) against Quinn Priester on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Quinn Priester has walked 13% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed a SLG of just .235 vs right-handed batters (tied for third best)– 97th Percentile but .489 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 15th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .863 (364 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .669 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .300 (99-for-330) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed a slugging percentage of .563 (138 Total Bases / 245 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 210-166 (.559) since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Brewers are 94-70 (.573) after a loss since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Brewers are 81-23 (.779) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 11-42 (.208) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .365.
The Pirates are just 8-62 (.114) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 1-18 (.053) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .312 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .376.
Brewers hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,726 of their 6,170 plate appearances (28%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have put just 24% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Pirates are batting just .206 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .304 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 36% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 58% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Brewers pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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