- The Rays are -150 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Rays Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Rays TV Channel: FSUN | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+125) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-150) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Brewers are 19-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 17-22 ATS.
Brewers vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Chad Patrick 2-3, 3.14 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen 1-3, 3.06 ERA
Brewers vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -120 | +125 |
| Rays | -1.5 +140 | U 9 +100 | -150 |
Brewers vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+12.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+8.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 away games (+7.10 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+14.90 Units / 248% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.25 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 36 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.77 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.65 Units / 45% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+2.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 20-20 against the Run Line (-3.5 Units / -6.48% ROI).
- 19-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -6.95% ROI
- 15-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -21.31% ROI
- 22-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 12.71% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 17-22 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -13.38% ROI).
- 18-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -10.52% ROI
- 15-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -21.34% ROI
- 22-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 13.88% ROI
Rays vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Kameron Misner (TB) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Danny Jansen (TB) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Rays vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rays vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Rays vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (TB) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Chad Patrick (MIL) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chad Patrick has thrown elevated pitches 56% of the time (112/199) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (31/109) against Chad Patrick this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
75% of Chad Patrick’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (11/37) against Chad Patrick this month (2 game{NumGameSuffix}) — 4th lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 57% of the time (181/320) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 56% of the time (76/136) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (172/363) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (252/553) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Brewers are just 1-9 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .305.
The Brewers are just 0-15 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Brewers were 40-28 (.588) after a loss in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Brewers are 108-73 (.597) at home since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Rays are 2-17 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Rays are just 12-3 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 146-9 (.936) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Rays are 136-14 (.907) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .316 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .374.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 10 extra-base hits out of 64 total hits (just 16%) this month (9 game{NumGameSuffix}) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Rays are batting just .200 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Rays hitters slugged just .366 in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Rays hitters had an OPS of just .669 (6,006 PA’s) in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 58% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Brewers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers walked 439 of 5,994 batters (7%) in 2023 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Rays pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers walked 103 of 1,444 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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