- The Brewers are -110 favorites vs the Reds
- Brewers vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Monday, April 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Brewers are 6-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 4-5 ATS.
Brewers vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Graham Ashcraft 0-1, 3.00 ERA
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | O 9 -105 | -110 |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -115 | -110 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+6.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Graham Ashcraft has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 59% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 93 of their last 156 games (+19.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 76 games at home (+5.48 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 5-3 against the Run Line (+1.8 Units / 14.81% ROI).
- 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 43.48% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -2.86% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -3.91% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 4-5 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -11.61% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 6.96% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 26.63% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -36.55% ROI
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bauers | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| India | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Yelich | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Dunn | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| De La Cruz | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ashcraft | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
| Ashby | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Ashby threw breaking pitches 42% of the time (787/1,878) in 2022 — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 84th Percentile.
Aaron Ashby threw his slider 30% of the time (556/1,878) in 2022 — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total SL; League Avg: 26% — 76th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 7.33 (89.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has an average spin rate of 2782.1 RPM on sliders since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 2401.5 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents batted .325 (37-for-114) against Graham Ashcraft’s elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (44/141) against Graham Ashcraft on non-fastballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers were 24-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 25-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers were 23-10 (.697) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Brewers are 21-41 (.339) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 40-47 (.460) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Reds are just 50-38 (.568) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 19-24 (.442) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are 14-67 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have 14 strikeouts in 43 PA’s (33%) against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .171 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Brewers hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 25 extra-base hits out of 50 total hits (50%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Reds hitters have put just 29% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds hitters have put just 23% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Reds hitters have 68 strikeouts in 228 PA’s (30%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers had an ERA of 3.73 (1443.0 IP) in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Brewers have allowed 3.99 runs per game (678/170) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.61.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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