- The Reds are -150 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Brewers / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-145) on Tuesday, April 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Brewers are 6-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 5-5 ATS.
Brewers vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Joe Ross 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 2-0, 0.79 ERA
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -160 | O 9.5 -115 | +120 |
| Reds | -1.5 +135 | U 9.5 -105 | -145 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+8.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+7.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 71% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 100% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+8.25 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 92 of their last 155 games (+18.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 76 games at home (+5.48 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 6.08% ROI).
- 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 28.16% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 7.69% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -15.27% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 5-5 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -2.33% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 14.29% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 33.33% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -43.44% ROI
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dunn | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Chourio | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| India | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| De La Cruz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Stephenson | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Montas | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
| Ross | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ross has walked 5 of 18 batters (28%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Joe Ross has a strike rate of just 52% (38/73) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 36% of Joe Ross’ pitches (26/73) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Joe Ross has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 42% (5/12) of opposing batters this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has a strike rate of 86% (30/35) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 70% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (7/19) against Frankie Montas on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has a strike rate of 86% (30/35) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 69% — 99th Percentile.
67% of Frankie Montas’ strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 25-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers were 24-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers were 23-10 (.697) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Brewers are 39-13 (.750) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 40-47 (.460) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Reds are just 19-24 (.442) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are 14-67 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Reds are just 30-39 (.435) after a home win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have chased 30% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Brewers are batting .457 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Brewers are batting just .235 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 15 extra-base hits out of 28 total hits (54%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Reds hitters have put just 23% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Reds hitters have 26 extra-base hits out of 52 total hits (50%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Brewers have allowed 4.02 runs per game (688/171) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.61.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .395 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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