Brewers vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 7

Kansas City Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. during a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies in Kansas City, Mo., Saturday, June 3, 2023.
(AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
  • The Royals are -125 favorites vs the Brewers
  • Brewers vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Brewers / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | BSWI

The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Brewers are 20-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 23-13 ATS.

Brewers vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 3-0, 2.68 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 5-1, 1.58 ERA

Brewers vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers+1.5 -185O 9 -105+105
Royals -1.5 +150U 9 -115-125

Brewers vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 23 games (+21.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+15.80 Units / 79% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+16.50 Units / 87% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+16.30 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.60 Units / 243% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.60 Units / 61% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.30 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 18-16 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -2.15% ROI).

  • 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 16.8% ROI
  • 19-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 7.83% ROI
  • 15-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -15.5% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 23-13 against the Run Line (+6.49 Units / 12.54% ROI).

  • 21-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 19.9% ROI
  • 11-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -34.2% ROI
  • 22-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 25.71% ROI

Royals vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +333 0.5 -450
Rhys Hoskins (MIL) 0.5 +350 0.5 -450
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
MJ Melendez (KC) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Willy Adames (MIL) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650

Royals vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
MJ Melendez (KC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Sal Frelick (MIL) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Tyler Black (MIL) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Michael Massey (KC) 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Royals vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +110 0.5 -140
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 0.5 +115 0.5 -155
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
William Contreras (MIL) 0.5 +135 0.5 -185
Rhys Hoskins (MIL) 0.5 +140 0.5 -190

Royals vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Colin Rea (MIL) 3.5 -105 3.5 -120
Seth Lugo (KC) 5.5 +130 5.5 -165

Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% (23 SO in 144 PAs) this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (45/242) against Colin Rea this season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.

Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (30 Total Bases / 50 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (12/35) against Colin Rea in two-strike counts this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .036 (1-for-28) against Seth Lugo with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .159 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (19/107) against Seth Lugo this season — 4th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.

Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 17% (11 SO in 63 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 17th Percentile.

Seth Lugo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .120 (3 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 96th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Brewers are 40-94 (.299) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.

The Brewers are 26-49 (.347) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.

The Brewers are 90-68 (.570) after a loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Brewers are 63-48 (.568) after a win since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Royals are just 13-88 (.129) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.

The Royals are just 18-14 (.562) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.

The Royals are just 34-18 (.654) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Royals are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are batting just .187 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of .765 (1,099 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .692.

Brewers hitters have an OBP of .339 (1,099 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Brewers are batting just .232 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.

The Royals have won just 51% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (3,515 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Royals have won just 45% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Brewers pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Royals pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Royals have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Royals pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Royals won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Royals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
  • Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
  • Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
  • Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
  • Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
  • Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
  • Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
  • Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
  • Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.