- The Royals are -125 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Brewers / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Brewers are 20-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 23-13 ATS.
Brewers vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 3-0, 2.68 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 5-1, 1.58 ERA
Brewers vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -105 | +105 |
| Royals | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -115 | -125 |
Brewers vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 23 games (+21.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+15.80 Units / 79% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+16.50 Units / 87% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+16.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.60 Units / 243% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.60 Units / 61% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.30 Units / 60% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 18-16 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -2.15% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 16.8% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 7.83% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -15.5% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 23-13 against the Run Line (+6.49 Units / 12.54% ROI).
- 21-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 19.9% ROI
- 11-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -34.2% ROI
- 22-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 25.71% ROI
Royals vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Royals vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tyler Black (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Royals vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -120 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -165 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% (23 SO in 144 PAs) this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (45/242) against Colin Rea this season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (30 Total Bases / 50 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (12/35) against Colin Rea in two-strike counts this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .036 (1-for-28) against Seth Lugo with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .159 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (19/107) against Seth Lugo this season — 4th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 17% (11 SO in 63 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 17th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .120 (3 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 96th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Brewers are 40-94 (.299) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 26-49 (.347) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Brewers are 90-68 (.570) after a loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Brewers are 63-48 (.568) after a win since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Royals are just 13-88 (.129) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 18-14 (.562) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Royals are just 34-18 (.654) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Royals are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .187 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .765 (1,099 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .339 (1,099 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Brewers are batting just .232 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 51% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (3,515 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have won just 45% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Brewers pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Royals pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Royals have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Royals pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Royals won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
Bet now on Brewers vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
