- The Brewers are -175 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals vs Brewers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Cardinals / Brewers TV Channel: FOX
The St. Louis Cardinals (+145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-175) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Cardinals are 15-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 21-17 ATS.
Cardinals vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson 2-2, 3.68 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 3-1, 3.53 ERA
Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +145 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -115 | -175 |
Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+16.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+16.60 Units / 166% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 35 games (+12.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.90 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games (+18.30 Units / 131% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+17.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 38 games (+16.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+11.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+9.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 away games (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 away games (+9.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+5.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 57 away games (+5.65 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 18-20 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -8.37% ROI).
- 15-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.35 Units / -23.83% ROI
- 14-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -24.7% ROI
- 22-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 16.49% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 21-17 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 1.09% ROI).
- 23-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 20.61% ROI
- 23-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.9 Units / 16.57% ROI
- 15-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -23.96% ROI
Brewers vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson (STL) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has allowed a slugging percentage of .818 (18 Total Bases / 22 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 — first Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 15% (53 SO in 360 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (36/58) against Kyle Gibson this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 60% (389/649) this season — 3rd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 64% — sixth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 63% (50 SO in 79 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has struck out 39% (31/80) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 (59-for-301) against Freddy Peralta when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 63% (50 SO in 79 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cardinals are just 15-27 (.357) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Cardinals are 28-12 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 24-34 (.414) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Cardinals are just 86-113 (.432) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Brewers are 27-50 (.351) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Brewers are 36-22 (.621) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 50-30 (.625) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Brewers are 40-42 (.488) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.74 (894.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
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