- The Nationals are -145 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cardinals / Nationals TV Channel: FDMW | MASN
The St. Louis Cardinals (+125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-150) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Cardinals are 21-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 19-21 ATS.
Cardinals vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas 1-2, 4.72 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 2-3, 3.38 ERA
Cardinals vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -118 | +125 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -102 | -150 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ivan Herrera has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.80 Units / 295% ROI)
- Victor Scott II has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.60 Units / 106% ROI)
- Victor Scott II has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Victor Scott II has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Victor Scott II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 68% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 48% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in their last 7 games (+8.75 Units / 102% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 30 games (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 38 games (+4.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+3.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 33 games (+1.20 Units / 3% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 22-18 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.09% ROI).
- 21-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.45% ROI
- 22-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 9.66% ROI
- 16-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.4 Units / -19.09% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 19-21 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -11.1% ROI).
- 17-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -7.25% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 3.31% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -11.54% ROI
Nationals vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Nationals vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 -110 |
| Miles Mikolas (STL) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .225 (89-for-396) against Miles Mikolas with two-strikes in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — second Percentile.
Miles Mikolas allowed a slugging percentage of .558 (189 Total Bases / 339 ABs) on non-fastballs in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — first Percentile.
Miles Mikolas has a strikeout rate of just 15% (98 SO in 644 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 17% (265/1,590) against Miles Mikolas in 2023 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
9 of MacKenzie Gore’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 36% (68 SO in 187 PAs) this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 36% (68 SO in 187 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (140/390) against MacKenzie Gore this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Cardinals were 18-9 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Cardinals are 30-21 (.588) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Cardinals are 83-5 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are just 62-95 (.392) after a win since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 86-96 (.470) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 34-53 (.386) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting .207 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Cardinals are batting .348 on changeups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .360 (791 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 19% of it’s PA’s against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters had an OPS of just .901 (1,155 PA’s) when the pitcher was behind in the count in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.100.
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have allowed 2.30 runs per game (92/40) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
More MLB Reading:
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