- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cardinals / Red Sox TV Channel: FDMW | NESN
The St. Louis Cardinals (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Saturday, April 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Cardinals are 4-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 6-2 ATS.
Cardinals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Andre Pallante 1-0, 3.60 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Fitts 0-1, 4.50 ERA
Cardinals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -200 | O 9 -120 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | U 9 +100 | -125 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+18.90 Units / 270% ROI)
- Masyn Winn has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+9.30 Units / 80% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Masyn Winn has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Story has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+13.90 Units / 463% ROI)
- Kristian Campbell has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+8.75 Units / 146% ROI)
- Kristian Campbell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 95% ROI)
- Kristian Campbell has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Connor Wong has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games (+5.15 Units / 129% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+6.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 57% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 4-3 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 4.9% ROI).
- 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -1.14% ROI
- 6-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 64.47% ROI
- 1-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -73.08% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 6-2 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 43.44% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -1.13% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -27.59% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 19.1% ROI
Red Sox vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kristian Campbell (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Fitts (BOS) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (173/226) against Andre Pallante in 2023 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (173/226) against Andre Pallante in 2023 — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .357 (40-for-112) against Andre Pallante in 2023 — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Andre Pallante allowed an OBP of .444 (133 PA’s) against right-handed batters in 2023 — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .304 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 70% (37/53) against Richard Fitts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Richard Fitts has a strike rate of 81% (21/26) when ahead in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 100th Percentile.
Richard Fitts has thrown breaking pitches 74% of the time (39/53) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Richard Fitts has thrown his slider 74% of the time (39/53) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total SL; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cardinals were 18-9 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Cardinals are just 10-143 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Cardinals were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Cardinals are just 49-50 (.495) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 38-43 (.469) at home in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Red Sox are just 14-133 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Red Sox are just 35-142 (.198) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have drawn 16 walks in 87 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cardinals are batting .250 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .879 (290 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .377 (290 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have an ERA of 14.63 (8.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 16 of 279 batters (6%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 13 double plays in 61 opportunities (21%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 206 of 2,959 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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