- The Cubs are -115 favorites vs the Brewers
- Cubs vs Brewers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Cubs / Brewers TV Channel: MARQ | FDWI
The Chicago Cubs (-118) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-102) on Sunday, May 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Cubs are 21-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 17-17 ATS.
Cubs vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 3-1, 2.77 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 3-2, 2.52 ERA
Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -105 | -118 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -115 | -102 |
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 away games (+32.90 Units / 366% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in his last 6 away games (+10.05 Units / 167% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.95 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+14.30 Units / 238% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 30 games (+17.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games (+17.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.42 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 30 games (+3.95 Units / 12% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 19-15 against the Run Line (+5.4 Units / 12.65% ROI).
- 21-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 16.05% ROI
- 20-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.15 Units / 19.54% ROI
- 12-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -27.09% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 17-17 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -6.56% ROI).
- 16-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -7.57% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -12.78% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 4.3% ROI
Brewers vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Brewers vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Brewers vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (1,407/2,507) against Shota Imanaga since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 56% of Shota Imanaga’s pitches (1,442/2,591) in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga allowed an OBP of just .237 (257 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (26/89) against Shota Imanaga this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 53% (63/120) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 59% (716/1,217) in two strike counts since last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 61% (1,126/1,846) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.
Freddy Peralta had a strike rate of just 58% (596/1,019) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are 12-6 (.667) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Cubs are 10-3 (.769) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Cubs are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Brewers are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Brewers are 55-38 (.591) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season They play the Cubs (10th best runs allowed) today.
The Brewers are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .290 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Cubs hitters are slugging .519 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .888 (338 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .856 (741 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,726 of their 6,170 plate appearances (28%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters slugged just .242 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 44% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.26 (881.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
The Cubs allowed 3.41 runs per game (276/81) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 55% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 59% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Brewers pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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