- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Cubs vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Cubs are 28-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 24-22 ATS.
Cubs vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 2-3, 4.53 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers 1-0, 1.80 ERA
Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +120 | O 8.5 -110 | -135 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -145 | U 8.5 -110 | +115 |
Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 58.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+20.65 Units / 207% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+32.50 Units / 542% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Liam Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+14.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games (+12.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.36 Units / 15% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+5.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.75 Units / 95% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 25-23 against the Run Line (+1.62 Units / 2.68% ROI).
- 28-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 6.19% ROI
- 28-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.65 Units / 18.58% ROI
- 17-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.2 Units / -26.47% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 24-22 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 1.07% ROI).
- 19-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -1.35% ROI
- 28-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.85 Units / 15.35% ROI
- 18-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -25.17% ROI
Marlins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Marlins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Carson Kelly (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Carson Kelly (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers (MIA) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 5.5 +140 | 5.5 -190 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .662 (51 Total Bases / 77 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — first Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OPS of .987 (81 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — first Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .605 (26 Total Bases / 43 ABs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .241 — second Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .589 (53 Total Bases / 90 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
37 of Ryan Weathers’ 85 strikeouts (43%) have come on changeups since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
68 of Ryan Weathers’ 85 strikeouts (80%) have come on non-fastballs since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 54% — 98th Percentile.
35 of Ryan Weathers’ 80 strikeouts (44%) came on changeups in the 2024 season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 25% (256/1,015) against Ryan Weathers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 30% — fourth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are 14-5 (.737) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Cubs are 50-13 (.794) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Cubs are 83-49 (.629) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Marlins (27th best runs scored) today.
The Cubs are 9-2 (.818) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .617.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins are just 26-53 (.329) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .420 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Cubs hitters are slugging .489 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Cubs hitters are slugging .429 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Cubs have scored three or more runs in an inning 40 times (9%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 5% of batters this month (17 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Cubs allowed 3.41 runs per game (276/81) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.30 (168.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
More MLB Reading:
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