- The Cubs are -140 favorites vs the Marlins
- Cubs vs Marlins Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cubs / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Cubs are 29-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 24-23 ATS.
Cubs vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Cade Horton 2-0, 6.01 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 3-4, 4.50 ERA
Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +115 | O 9 -120 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | U 9 +100 | +120 |
Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+13.65 Units / 171% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.25 Units / 65% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+13.60 Units / 136% ROI)
- Max Meyer has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.40 Units / 59% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 70% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+7.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+7.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+4.25 Units / 60% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 26-23 against the Run Line (+2.77 Units / 4.51% ROI).
- 29-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 7.5% ROI
- 29-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.65 Units / 20.04% ROI
- 17-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.2 Units / -27.81% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 24-23 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -1.31% ROI).
- 19-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -3.35% ROI
- 29-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.85 Units / 16.91% ROI
- 18-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -26.64% ROI
Marlins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Marlins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Horton (CHC) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cade Horton has a strikeout rate of just 10% (2 SO in 21 PAs) over the past seven days (1 game) — 4th lowest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (6/40) against Cade Horton over the past seven days (1 game) — 9th lowest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 24% — 15th Percentile.
Cade Horton has not walked any of the 39 batters that they have faced this month (2 games) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
14% of Cade Horton’s strikeouts are in the zone this month (2 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 39% (50/127) against Max Meyer this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Max Meyer has thrown off-speed pitches 67% of the time (526/790) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Max Meyer has thrown his slider 49% of the time (390/790) this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Max Meyer has a strikeout rate of 35% (28 SO in 81 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are 42-12 (.778) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .636.
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Cubs are 2-16 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Cubs are 15-5 (.750) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins are just 26-54 (.325) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Cubs are batting .424 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Cubs hitters are slugging .484 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Cubs are batting .274 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (.190) against the run line (-61.9% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Cubs pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 6% of batters this month (18 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.30 (168.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
More MLB Reading:
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